The reason the weather is so bad this month is that a so-called jet stream, which lowers air pressure and brings unsettled weather, has become stuck over southern England. But there are facts that suggest climate change may be partly to blame. Australia’s deadly fires have been fuelled by a combination of extreme heat, prolonged drought and strong winds. If you’ve been away from the coastline this week, you’ve probably noticed the film of dirty air building over the basins and valleys—our region’s infamous smog. He said it … But they're more cautious about saying whether it can be blamed on climate change. The polar vortex (the low pressure area that lurks over the pole, inside the polar night stream) also stretched further south than normal this year, covering part of Canada, which may have contributed as well. While most of last year’s flooding in the Missouri and Mississippi valleys has receded, the imprint left by last year’s soaking is likely to produce another challenging spring flood season in 2020. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. Weather forecasters say the recent temperature hike in the UK is down to a phenomenon called the “foehn effect”. Another wild card for winter cold outbreaks is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that could weaken the polar vortex. Why they get it wrong. Stronger El Niño events typically decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña causes an increase in activity. The North Atlantic jet stream basically steers storms right towards the UK and Ireland. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! So: there were a lot of contributory factors. It’s been a strange start to the winter season in the Lower 48. This is consistent with NOAA’s January-March precipitation outlook – shown above in the spring flood section – indicating drier-than-average odds from Southern California to South Texas. Use up and down arrows to change selection. There's no doubt it was a record-breakingly bad winter in the UK - the Met Office report lays out plenty of stats to show that. Keep up with the latest daily buzz with the BuzzFeed Daily newsletter! The National Weather Service reports that 44 deaths have been attributed to flooding so far this year, ... How the idea of the tiny house evolved in 2020. Shares. It’s too early to provide a specific forecast for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, but Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project issued its initial outlook in December. Why the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has spun out of control Extra-warm ocean waters, boosted by climate change, and La Niña are key drivers in … And there's a self-reinforcing element to it - it creates the conditions for the formation of storms, but it also gains momentum from those storms. The weather's been terrible on both sides of the Atlantic for months. For now, there is no such SSW event on the horizon, but we can’t rule it out in February or March. A strong polar night jet - a jet stream which only forms in the polar winter, at very high altitudes - also tends to precede a strong Atlantic jet stream, and this year's polar night jet was sometimes more than twice its normal strength. 9 Ways to Tell the Difference. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! But it gives us a pretty good explanation of why everything is so dreadful. This area of drought has been present since last summer. What … Astrologer Anne Ortelee explains that a major conjunction will kick off 2020 with a bang on Sunday, when Saturn aligns with Pluto. But the latest outlooks from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggest it may be difficult for sustained colder-than-average air to hold in the eastern half of the country in January. Share on Facebook Share on … When this happens, the typically strong stratospheric polar vortex that keeps the coldest air fenced in over the Arctic weakens, the jet stream becomes more blocked-up with sharp, southward meanders, and more persistent cold air plunges deep into the Lower 48. This long-term climate cycle, which is based on sea-surface temperatures and sea level pressure fields in the North Atlantic, enhances hurricane activity when it’s in a positive phase. In the Four Corners, however, there is a hopeful sign. We're certain to see further sea level rises over the coming decades (compared to the levels in 1990.) (2019 RECAPS: Year in Review | Strangest Weather | Most Extreme U.S. Cities). Something for everyone interested in hair, makeup, style, and body positivity. California residents can opt out of "sales" of personal data. PUBLISHED 9:12 AM ET Jun. NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook released Dec. 19 indicated drought would persist, if not spread, in parts of the Southern Plains through March. Black lines depict parts of a storm's track when it was not classified as a tropical cyclone. In other words, today’s four-day forecast is as accurate as a three-day forecast was a de… The outlook calls for a 45% chance of an above-average hurricane season, a 45% chance of a near-average season, and just a 10% chance of a below-average season. And this has a knock-on effect on the path of the jet stream. Here's Everything You Need To Know About Why The Weather's Been So Bad As the U.K. floods and the U.S. freezes, blame it on increased rainfall … The stratosphere is a layer of the atmosphere about 6 to 30 miles above the ground – above the troposphere, where most of the weather with which you're familiar occurs. This zone of wet weather moves south over Kenya in the months of October to December and is known as the "short rains". So why are mosquitoes so plentiful this year? Obsessed with travel? The first option will be automatically selected. Let's walk through five of the key weather questions of 2020 and explain what some outlooks suggest might happen. This forecast factor will not be ironed out for certain until summer draws nearer. UK weather: snow and ice to bring 2020 to wintry end for many. NOAA said 2019 was likely to be Earth’s second-warmest year on record in a report released in December. The key to whether or not this Plains drought spreads will be spring rainfall. Weather; Culture. By Jacqueline Bennett California. Wildfires: Why they’re getting so bad, and tips for staying safe from the smoke by Taylor Soper on September 10, 2020 at 11:33 pm September 13, 2020 at … There needs to be more research to confirm this, but - notably - it also fits exactly with what basic physics would suggest a warming world will produce. Why wasps become so annoying at the end of summer In partnership with Friday, September 4th 2020, 2:00 pm - Despite appearances, wasps only tend to upset your outdoor life at the end of the summer. powered by Microsoft News. Some People Are Blaming #BabyNut . Why is the sun so red in 2020? Two areas of warm water, one in the northeast Pacific Ocean known colloquially as “The Blob” and another in the central Pacific southwest of Hawaii known as a Modoki El Niño, favor “a steady stream of cold air into Canada and parts of the northern U.S,” Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said in a December outlook. The jet stream is a basically a long tube of fast-moving air, flowing west to east around the globe, several miles up in the atmosphere. Drought monitor analysis as of Dec. 31, 2019. Matt Cardy / Getty Images | Tom Phillips/BuzzFeed. It's 24 pages of rather complicated meteorology. Instead, it would runoff into creeks, streams, rivers, lakes and reservoirs. The main reason the North Atlantic jet stream was so strong was the extra-cold air hitting the warm, moist air over the Atlantic. Skip To Navigation; Skip To Content; Skip To Footer; Sign in. So just how do scientists predict something as complicated as the weather, and why are they so often wrong about it? Arguably the most significant cold air blast in the nation happened in late October and the first half of November, smashing all-time October records and more daily record lows into the Deep South in November. Neutral conditions exist right now, which means there is neither an El Niño or La Niña event ongoing. Stronger El Niños typically put somewhat of a brake on hurricane season. Weather, in meteorological terms, refers to the daily elements like temperature, wind and rain. The water is going to immediately run off," South Dakota state climatologist Laura Edwards said in an NWS flood outlook issued in early November, illustrating the status of the state's soil conditions approaching winter and how the soil is expected to respond in spring. It didn't used to be so bad even a month ago. Fasten your seat belts: The year of accountability has arrived. So why are mosquitoes so plentiful this year? Type at least three characters to start auto complete. This could change in February, with the best chance of colder-than-average air across the northern tier. Over 100 daily record highs were tied or set Christmas Day in the Midwest and Plains, leaving some in the southern Great Lakes with a snowless Christmas. How Winter Fashion Has Changed in 100 Years (PHOTOS), Eerie Vintage Photos of People Battling the Flu, Democratic Republic of the Congo | Français, State of Vatican City (Holy See) | Italiano, A prediction made by Climate Scientist Gavin Schmidt. And of that, "at least two-thirds will be due to the effects of climate change.". He added that we can expect this year to be at least another top-five warmest. There's actually two parts of the jet stream that matter here - the Asia-Pacific jet stream (where it leaves Asia over Japan) and the North Atlantic jet stream, which runs up from the Americas in the general direction of Europe. But that's what the latest outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts from the northern Rockies across the Northern Plains, Midwest and mid-Atlantic through March. While it’s too soon to tell if late spring and summer will also be wet, this potential for increased rain and snow atop soaked, frozen ground could mean another spring of record flooding and delays planting crops in the spring for beleaguered farmers in the nation’s heartland. The sub-tropical Atlantic is also significantly warmer than average right now, meaning an even larger temperature difference - plus lots of extra moisture in the air, which got picked up and dumped on the UK and Ireland. A pair of weather patterns largely unfavorable for tornado-spawning severe thunderstorms were in place in May 2020. (And maybe blame climate change.). Learn more about what's making the sun red across the country. Temperatures are also rising, which is causing the state’s forests, grasslands, and chaparral to dry out even more. The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. Another variable used in the outlook is what’s called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). And that meant the jet stream was suddenly pulling cold arctic air down across Canada and the USA - which is why it's been so cold there. That temperature difference is what creates storms in the first place - the bigger the difference, the more fuel there is for storms. Forecast models indicate neutral conditions could continue into next summer, but those forecasts are notoriously uncertain until after spring. Super cold air is normally locked up in the Arctic in the polar vortex, which is a gigantic circular weather pattern around the North Pole. That temperature trend has been climbing upward since the late 1970s. CSU’s outlook says the AMO likely remains in a positive phase based on the fact that the past four hurricane seasons have been above average. Three-month temperature outlook for January through March 2020 from The Weather Company, an IBM Business. "Imagine putting a soaking wet sponge in the freezer, taking it out, and then trying to pour water on it. By Janice Williams On 3/26/20 at 1:39 PM EDT. As the U.K. floods and the U.S. freezes, blame it on increased rainfall in the West Pacific, and some meandering jet streams. But what is the foehn effect and why has it made February so warm? Over 100 daily record highs were tied or set Christmas Day in the Midwest and Plains, leaving some in the sou… The Western Pacific has been abnormally warm for most of the decade; the area (particularly Indonesia and the eastern Indian Ocean) had much higher rainfall than normal throughout December and January - and it already rains an awful lot there. Take control of your data. msn back to msn home weather. Spring flooding will likely be another major threat in much of the nation's midsection. If the typically wetter months of May and June are dry, followed by a typically hot summer, the Plains drought could then spread. By Ilissa Ocko 21 October 2014. The state already has The Reason 2020 Has Been So Bad? But ironically, all the rain that’s fallen is yet another reason why it’s raining so much now. Based on data through November, and December’s precipitation, 2019 will likely be the nation’s wettest year on record dating to 1895 when NOAA releases its U.S. 2019 state of the climate summary next Wednesday. NOAA's January-March 2020 precipitation outlook indicates a chance of a wet first three months of the year across much of the northern states, including those areas ravaged by flooding in 2019. What is a jet stream? why is it so cold? Since the soil is so saturated, any additional rain or snowmelt can’t soak into the ground. But why do NASA, the 45th Space Wing of the Space Force, their safety officers, and all launch providers make such a big deal about the weather? Recently searched locations will be displayed if there is no search query. 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